Period & Derivative Pricing
Modeled fair odds for the markets books make softest — 1st/2nd/3rd period totals, period moneyline, and per-team period goals. We de-vig the full-game line and split it into periods using our own play-by-play scoring shares.
Period total — modeled P(over/under) the standard period line + fair no-vig odds.
Period ML — P(team wins / ties / loses) that single period (ties are common).
xG split — modeled goals for each team in that period.
Fair price — our model's price for the period, shown next to the book's posted line. We publish no edge figure: this site has 139 graded non-seed picks, all on one slate date.